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	<title>Comments on: Gil Dodgen: Uncommonly Dense</title>
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	<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/</link>
	<description>All the etcetera that&#039;s fit to read.</description>
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		<title>By: arensb</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-239219</link>
		<dc:creator>arensb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Jan 2011 15:13:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-239219</guid>
		<description>arkady59:
&lt;blockquote&gt;Isn’t the totality of a living system available to random alteration? If so, wouldn’t subjecting the totality of a system purporting to simulate evolutionary process be a more accurate representation of the real system as it exists in the real world???&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;i&gt;*Sigh*&lt;/i&gt; Okay, let&#039;s try this again:

Nate Silver over at &lt;a href=&quot;http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;FiveThirtyEight&lt;/a&gt; runs computer simulations to try to predict the outcome of elections. There&#039;s nothing magical about his program: it doesn&#039;t do anything that he couldn&#039;t, in principle, do with paper and pencil. It&#039;s just a lot faster and easier. But for the sake of argument, let&#039;s say that he decides to run his simulation by hand, with paper and pencil.

An awful lot of factors can affect the outcome of an election: how many people are registered to vote, how many registered voters are Republicans, how popular the incumbents are, even whether it rains on election day.

So let&#039;s say that Nate has painstakingly done the math and figured out that the incumbent has a 58% chance of winning reelection. And now he starts all over, with the same formulas, the same poll data, the same everything. But this time, we pour water on him as he&#039;s doing it (because rain can affect elections).

Question: will this affect the outcome of Nate&#039;s calculation? If yes, then basically you&#039;re saying that 2+2=4 in ordinary cases but 2+2&#8800;4 if someone&#039;s spraying water on the person doing the calculation.

&lt;blockquote&gt;Dodgen probably has a point.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

True, but if he combs over it, maybe nobody&#039;ll notice.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>arkady59:</p>
<blockquote><p>Isn’t the totality of a living system available to random alteration? If so, wouldn’t subjecting the totality of a system purporting to simulate evolutionary process be a more accurate representation of the real system as it exists in the real world???</p></blockquote>
<p><i>*Sigh*</i> Okay, let&#8217;s try this again:</p>
<p>Nate Silver over at <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/" rel="nofollow">FiveThirtyEight</a> runs computer simulations to try to predict the outcome of elections. There&#8217;s nothing magical about his program: it doesn&#8217;t do anything that he couldn&#8217;t, in principle, do with paper and pencil. It&#8217;s just a lot faster and easier. But for the sake of argument, let&#8217;s say that he decides to run his simulation by hand, with paper and pencil.</p>
<p>An awful lot of factors can affect the outcome of an election: how many people are registered to vote, how many registered voters are Republicans, how popular the incumbents are, even whether it rains on election day.</p>
<p>So let&#8217;s say that Nate has painstakingly done the math and figured out that the incumbent has a 58% chance of winning reelection. And now he starts all over, with the same formulas, the same poll data, the same everything. But this time, we pour water on him as he&#8217;s doing it (because rain can affect elections).</p>
<p>Question: will this affect the outcome of Nate&#8217;s calculation? If yes, then basically you&#8217;re saying that 2+2=4 in ordinary cases but 2+2&ne;4 if someone&#8217;s spraying water on the person doing the calculation.</p>
<blockquote><p>Dodgen probably has a point.</p></blockquote>
<p>True, but if he combs over it, maybe nobody&#8217;ll notice.</p>
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		<title>By: arkady59</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-239202</link>
		<dc:creator>arkady59</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Jan 2011 13:46:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-239202</guid>
		<description>Isn&#039;t the totality of a living system available to random alteration?  If so, wouldn&#039;t subjecting the totality of a system purporting to simulate evolutionary process be a more accurate representation of the real system as it exists in the real world??? 

I don&#039;t think the author&#039;s comment concerning  NOAA&#039;s computer system is applicable (it would be if the programming was subjected to random errors, ones left to be corrected to addtional code &quot;arising&quot; from the same random proceesses.)  The bit about &quot;Orcs&quot; is just silly....  

Dodgen probably has a point.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t the totality of a living system available to random alteration?  If so, wouldn&#8217;t subjecting the totality of a system purporting to simulate evolutionary process be a more accurate representation of the real system as it exists in the real world??? </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think the author&#8217;s comment concerning  NOAA&#8217;s computer system is applicable (it would be if the programming was subjected to random errors, ones left to be corrected to addtional code &#8220;arising&#8221; from the same random proceesses.)  The bit about &#8220;Orcs&#8221; is just silly&#8230;.  </p>
<p>Dodgen probably has a point.</p>
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		<title>By: nikkipolya</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-231397</link>
		<dc:creator>nikkipolya</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Dec 2010 15:25:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-231397</guid>
		<description>arensb:

&#039;arensb&#039;, thanks a lot for your reply!

So, instead of invoking ID, creationism, or other nihilistic theories, that lack any concrete evidence, I just prefer to say, &quot;we don&#039;t know how the universe got here&quot;. We should let more evidence accumulate and may be one day we *might* know how the universe got here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>arensb:</p>
<p>&#8216;arensb&#8217;, thanks a lot for your reply!</p>
<p>So, instead of invoking ID, creationism, or other nihilistic theories, that lack any concrete evidence, I just prefer to say, &#8220;we don&#8217;t know how the universe got here&#8221;. We should let more evidence accumulate and may be one day we *might* know how the universe got here.</p>
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		<title>By: arensb</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-217468</link>
		<dc:creator>arensb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Oct 2010 16:34:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-217468</guid>
		<description>nikkipolya:
You&#039;ll notice that ID proponents, when they&#039;re not talking to church groups, are rather vague about the identity and characteristics of the unnamed designer. In fact, they go out of their way to say that nothing can be said about the designer even though that would seem to be a fairly obvious question. E.g., if you postulate that the designer designed the bacterial flagellum, then it follows that the designer is the sort of entity that would &lt;em&gt;want&lt;/em&gt; there to be a flagellum, which gives rise to all sorts of other questions (what kind of mind does the designer have? Why would he/she/it/they want a flagellum?).

Of course, they all know that by &quot;designer&quot;, they mean God. And asking tough questions about God leads to some uncomfortable answers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>nikkipolya:<br />
You&#8217;ll notice that ID proponents, when they&#8217;re not talking to church groups, are rather vague about the identity and characteristics of the unnamed designer. In fact, they go out of their way to say that nothing can be said about the designer even though that would seem to be a fairly obvious question. E.g., if you postulate that the designer designed the bacterial flagellum, then it follows that the designer is the sort of entity that would <em>want</em> there to be a flagellum, which gives rise to all sorts of other questions (what kind of mind does the designer have? Why would he/she/it/they want a flagellum?).</p>
<p>Of course, they all know that by &#8220;designer&#8221;, they mean God. And asking tough questions about God leads to some uncomfortable answers.</p>
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		<title>By: nikkipolya</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-217372</link>
		<dc:creator>nikkipolya</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Oct 2010 06:36:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-217372</guid>
		<description>Do you realize that employing &quot;Intelligent design&quot; only transforms one problem into another. Transferring all the questions without actually answering any questions. If laws of physics, and biology came through an &quot;external&quot; &quot;intelligent&quot; &quot;being&quot;. Where did the &quot;external&quot; &quot;intelligent&quot; &quot;being&quot; come from? Did it evolve or was it also designed? Who designed this other being then? Another &quot;external&quot; &quot;intelligent&quot; &quot;being&quot;... ad infinitum?

I don&#039;t understand what you guys are reveling about? You are happy that the first set of questions are answered and don&#039;t care about the next series of questions that it throws up. You can as well take life and physical laws for granted and carry on... instead of invoking the ghosts and sundry...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you realize that employing &#8220;Intelligent design&#8221; only transforms one problem into another. Transferring all the questions without actually answering any questions. If laws of physics, and biology came through an &#8220;external&#8221; &#8220;intelligent&#8221; &#8220;being&#8221;. Where did the &#8220;external&#8221; &#8220;intelligent&#8221; &#8220;being&#8221; come from? Did it evolve or was it also designed? Who designed this other being then? Another &#8220;external&#8221; &#8220;intelligent&#8221; &#8220;being&#8221;&#8230; ad infinitum?</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t understand what you guys are reveling about? You are happy that the first set of questions are answered and don&#8217;t care about the next series of questions that it throws up. You can as well take life and physical laws for granted and carry on&#8230; instead of invoking the ghosts and sundry&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Fez</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-177875</link>
		<dc:creator>Fez</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:37:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-177875</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;limboAZ says:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;Wow, you don’t realize that the underlying machinery implicitly becomes part of the simulation in genetic algorithms?... There is a high degree of intelligence in the underlying machinery that is swept under the carpet by those who wish to overstate the similarities between computer based computer algorithms and Darwinian evolution.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So what you&#039;re saying is that if I run my GA on a computer running Windows on top of an Intel i7 processor, then rerun the same GA with the same parameters on a computer running Solaris 10 on top of an Ultrasparc III processor I will see different results that can only be attributed to some undefined &quot;intelligence&quot; in the hardware, OS, choice of implementation language, compiler(s), or entropy source?  &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Since all of the above factors can be accounted for and controlled there should be a way to define the qualities of this &quot;intelligence&quot; and provide a description of it.  Let me know how that investigation works out for you.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>limboAZ says:</p>
<blockquote><p>Wow, you don’t realize that the underlying machinery implicitly becomes part of the simulation in genetic algorithms?&#8230; There is a high degree of intelligence in the underlying machinery that is swept under the carpet by those who wish to overstate the similarities between computer based computer algorithms and Darwinian evolution.</p></blockquote>
<p>So what you&#8217;re saying is that if I run my GA on a computer running Windows on top of an Intel i7 processor, then rerun the same GA with the same parameters on a computer running Solaris 10 on top of an Ultrasparc III processor I will see different results that can only be attributed to some undefined &#8220;intelligence&#8221; in the hardware, OS, choice of implementation language, compiler(s), or entropy source?  </p>
<p>Since all of the above factors can be accounted for and controlled there should be a way to define the qualities of this &#8220;intelligence&#8221; and provide a description of it.  Let me know how that investigation works out for you.</p>
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		<title>By: arensb</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-177874</link>
		<dc:creator>arensb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:32:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-177874</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;limboAZ:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote class=&#039;moron&#039;&gt;Wow, you don’t realize that the underlying machinery implicitly becomes part of the simulation in genetic algorithms?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So you&#039;re saying that if I were to pour a bucket of water on one of Blizzard&#039;s servers, it would rain in World of Warcraft?&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>limboAZ:</p>
<blockquote class='moron'><p>Wow, you don’t realize that the underlying machinery implicitly becomes part of the simulation in genetic algorithms?</p></blockquote>
<p>So you&#8217;re saying that if I were to pour a bucket of water on one of Blizzard&#8217;s servers, it would rain in World of Warcraft?</p>
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		<title>By: limboAZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-177868</link>
		<dc:creator>limboAZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 02:19:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-177868</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;last sentence, make that &quot;computer based GENETIC algorithms.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>last sentence, make that &#8220;computer based GENETIC algorithms.</p>
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		<title>By: limboAZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-177867</link>
		<dc:creator>limboAZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2009 02:17:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-177867</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Wow, you don&#039;t realize that the underlying machinery implicitly becomes part of the simulation in genetic algorithms? &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This wouldn&#039;t be such a problem if it weren&#039;t for the fact that some people use the (albeit limited) success of computer based genetic algorithms as proof that the creative ability of mutations and natural selection in evolution is practically limitless. There is a high degree of intelligence in the underlying machinery that is swept under the carpet by those who wish to overstate the similarities between computer based computer algorithms and Darwinian evolution.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow, you don&#8217;t realize that the underlying machinery implicitly becomes part of the simulation in genetic algorithms? </p>
<p>This wouldn&#8217;t be such a problem if it weren&#8217;t for the fact that some people use the (albeit limited) success of computer based genetic algorithms as proof that the creative ability of mutations and natural selection in evolution is practically limitless. There is a high degree of intelligence in the underlying machinery that is swept under the carpet by those who wish to overstate the similarities between computer based computer algorithms and Darwinian evolution.</p>
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		<title>By: Fez</title>
		<link>http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/comment-page-1/#comment-175539</link>
		<dc:creator>Fez</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 11:28:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ooblick.com/weblog/2006/10/03/gil-dodgen-uncommonly-dense/#comment-175539</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;themayan Says: &lt;blockquote&gt;Holy crap, facepalm, World of War Craft….. Great intellectual arguments gentlemen.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Because sometimes the stupid is so obvious one can simply leave the brain in neutral.  Have anything else to offer, troll?&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>themayan Says:<br />
<blockquote>Holy crap, facepalm, World of War Craft….. Great intellectual arguments gentlemen.</p></blockquote>
<p>Because sometimes the stupid is so obvious one can simply leave the brain in neutral.  Have anything else to offer, troll?</p>
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